We Predicted Right, Could comScore Be Wrong?
Our data is finally in and we’re pleased to report that our prediction was true. Monday, December 17, 2007 was the highest sales day for our ecommerce clients. Drawing on our findings from the 2006 holiday shopping season, we forecasted that the Monday two weeks before Christmas would have the highest sales due to it being the last day for guaranteed shipping.
We collected data from PPC management campaigns carried out for clients in various retail categories: designer apparel and accessories, cigars and personalized products for school-aged children. Details were collected regarding impressions, clicks, ad spend, return on investment and, of course, overall sales. This information was then compared to the same data from the 2006 holiday shopping season.
Our findings were somewhat contradictory to those reported by comScore. The Internet research company stated that the highest day was December 10th—oddly dubbed “Green Monday”—with $881 million in sales. While not a particularly environment-friendly day and having nothing to do with cash since nearly all payments are made using credit cards, Green Monday is a bit of a mystery to us for both its nomenclature and its highest-sales status. Green Monday beat the official Cyber Monday—November 26th, the first Monday after Thanksgiving—by $148 million. Cyber Monday was found way down in the number eight spot for highest sales with only $733 million.
Oddly enough, our highest sales day did not even make comScore’s Top 10 list. In fact, our data severely contradicted that published by comScore. The real Cyber Monday was our second highest sales day for most clients followed closely by Green Monday. The only metric in agreement between our data and comScore’s was the increase in overall sales from 2006. Our clients saw an average increase of 19.59% from last year’s entire holiday shopping season (November 1-December 31). Similar findings were reported by comScore—sales increased 19% to $29.2 billion.
We can only speculate as to why our data differed so significantly from comScore’s; however, we do not believe it to be a fluke considering this is the second year that the Monday two weeks before Christmas proved to be the highest sales day. Perhaps we are pursuing online shoppers more aggressively and speaking to their immediate needs, including messages in ad copy that tout fast, guaranteed delivery. Or maybe our clients’ target markets are just natural dawdlers, preferring to make hasty purchases at the absolute last minute regardless of increased shipping rates.
Whatever the case, we believe the Monday two weeks before Christmas—what we cleverly refer to as “the Monday two weeks before Christmas”—will again be the highest sales day during the 2008 holiday shopping season. Honestly, I doubt many online retailers care which day it is and what it is called—as long as sales continue to increase each year, they are sure to be jolly.
~Angie
on February 1st, 2008 at 5:26 am
The difference is almost certainly explained by the fact that you’re not looking at a representative cross section of the entire e-commerce market — as does comScore — but rather just a subset of certain retailers. I’d bet a lot of money that comScore has it correct. You might also want to recheck your time period definitions. The term “the Monday two weeks before Christmas” can easily be interpreted to be Monday December 10, which has two weeks between it and Christmas. Monday December 17, on the other hand has only one week between it and Christmas.
on February 1st, 2008 at 8:57 am
You’re right Leo, what I meant and should have written was “the second Monday before Christmas” or “two Mondays before Christmas,” not “the Monday two weeks before Christmas.” And I also realized that our data is from a very small subset of retailers compared to comScore; however, it is interesting that this is the second year in a row we have found the second Monday before Christmas to be the highest sales day. Our client base represents a variety of retail categories and some of those categories differ from last year as well. I believe our data is noteworthy, although I know it does not discredit comScore’s.
on February 1st, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Leo,
While comScore certainly looks at a more diverse cross section of the marketplace I have trouble thinking that their data is not inherently flawed. comScore gets the majority of their data from panels and people who opt in for measurement of their internet usuage. It is most definetely not a random sample of the internet population. It is completely plausible that an individual who desires thier internet usuage to be monitored may not behave like the general interent population.
In fact our data may actually be a better representaiton of the actual behavior of the preHoliday internet user, especially since the results have repeated themselves year over year. The type of product was varied (perfume, clothing, cigars, electronics) and the data robust. I’m going to stake our claim to this date as the true peak of holiday online shopping.
on February 2nd, 2008 at 6:23 am
Porterhouse, you’re correct that representivity of a sample is a critical issue, but if you believe that people who are willing to be monitored are inherently unrepresentative, then you’re essentially saying that all market research is flawed. The fact is that there are millions of “representative” people who are willing to express their opinions by participating in market research, allowing their behavior, attitudes and opinions to be monitored. Decades of market research have proven that to be a fact. I’m also impressed by the quarterly data that comScore has published comparing their e-commerce numbers to those of the Commerce Dept. For six years, the two data sets haven’t varied from each other by more than a few percent. To me, that seems to be very powerful confirmation of the validity of their data